The formula
Under NNPC's general terms and conditions (the contract is walked through in how Nigerian crude is sold), the price of a cargo is FOB, in US dollars per barrel: the average of published Dated Brent quotations over a pricing window, plus or minus the official selling price (OSP) differential that NNPC sets for the grade each month.1 Commercial procedure The contract describes this as the price at which crude is sold to buyers generally — every term buyer receives the same formula.
- Benchmark
- Dated Brent, as published by a price-reporting agency.
- Differential
- NNPC's monthly OSP for the grade, a premium or discount in dollars per barrel. Argus notes these are set by NNPC for a given loading month and are typically announced in the second half of the preceding month.23
- Pricing window
- The buyer elects one of three options — prompt, advance or deferred — relative to the bill of lading date; prompt is the default.1 Nigeria's transparency audit describes a five-day Dated Brent average keyed to the bill of lading date.4
- Payment
- Thirty days after the bill of lading date, under a letter of credit.1
Producers selling their own barrels, and traders reselling, negotiate spot differentials against the same benchmark, and the differential varies by grade with quality — compare the streams in the Nigerian crude grade database. Price-reporting agencies assess those differentials daily for cargoes loading 20 to 45 days ahead, FOB Nigeria.2
Dated examples of differentials
These are historical illustrations of how far differentials move. They are not current prices.
| Loading month | Bonny Light | Qua Iboe | Forcados | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20203 | −3.95 | −3.92 | −3.91 | Pandemic demand collapse; dozens of cargoes unsold |
| March 20225 | +1.93 | +2.16 | — | Tight light sweet market |
OPEC's statistical bulletin gives annual average Bonny Light prices of US$41.53 in 2020, US$70.63 in 2021, US$103.63 in 2022, US$83.46 in 2023 and US$82.22 in 2024.6 In 2026, press reports described unusually high premiums during disruption to Middle Eastern supply; we do not reproduce those figures because we could not open a primary source for them.
Not to be confused: the regulator's fiscal price
The Petroleum Industry Act requires royalties to be calculated on a fiscal oil price determined by the upstream regulator, approximating fair market value on an export-parity basis.7 Law / regulation The regulator publishes monthly fiscal differentials by grade for that purpose. They are a tax valuation, not a sale price: the regulator does not set the price of commercial cargoes.
Where to see indicative prices free of charge
| Source | What it gives | Limitation |
|---|---|---|
| Central Bank of Nigeria8 | Monthly Bonny Light price, production and exports | Monthly average, published with a lag; not a transactable price |
| OPEC bulletins6 | Bonny Light as a component of the OPEC Reference Basket | Monthly and annual values are historical |
| US EIA import cost series9 | Landed cost of Nigerian crude imported into the US | Lagged, mixes grades, includes freight, and recent months are often withheld |
| Argus, S&P Global Platts | Daily differentials, outright prices and OSP tables | Subscription services whose assessments may not be republished |
Free websites showing a daily Bonny Light price rarely disclose their source, and on the day we compared two of them their figures differed materially. We chose not to add another unsourced number to the internet. For a transaction, the price is whatever the contract formula produces on the pricing dates.
What this means when you receive an offer
- A legitimate offer states a benchmark, a differential and a pricing window — not a flat price "per barrel, gross and net".
- Differentials for Nigerian grades are typically a few dollars either side of Dated Brent. NNPC itself listed above-market discounts among the marks of a fraudulent offer; the other documented patterns are set out in the scam and verification centre.10
- Use the cargo value calculator to see what a differential means across a 950,000-barrel cargo.